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Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services. Ultimately, market prices are created by constantly fluctuating perceptions of market participants. Consequently, there can never be an objective or fair price of an asset. If a financial asset is heavily discussed in the mainstream press, it can be assumed with great certainty that everybody is invested in it already and that there will be no more new buyers.
Therefore, it would be advisable to do the opposite of the masses once such signals appear. In the young crypto market, there is no established sentiment data available. Futures on Bitcoin have been trading for only two months with relatively manageable volume. As a result, traditional sentiment data such as put-call ratios, Sentix, and sentiment surveys are not available to the extent that investors are familiar with from other markets. But the website SentimenTrader.
Last Sunday, these short-term sentiment numbers for Bitcoin reflected an extremely pessimistic mood and panic among Bitcoin traders and investors. Usually, although hard to measure, sentiment numbers are a very good indication and an indispensable tool for contrarians. Of course, in the past couple of days, the promising setup has already changed due to the strong bounce from 7, USD up to 9, USD.
As of now, sentiment has to be classified as more or less neutral. Alternative sentiment indicators are also of interest in the crypto sector. For example, investors can find numerous comments that expect crypto prices to rise to the moon very shortly below any YouTube video about finance, gold, or crypto.
As a true contrarian, that should give you something to think about. Currently, many major financial and economic news portals have added a new crypto section; however, more data analysis and reporting are needed because new trading opportunities via Contracts for Difference CFDs and Bitcoin futures are available. For example, data on Bitcoin futures are available in the U.
Although futures exchanges were originally created primarily to hedge future fluctuations in market prices for example, agriculture producers , hedge funds and private traders use futures markets to profit from price fluctuations. Similarly, there is virtually no position of hedgers intermediary dealers.
This is because there are not many securitized products available on Bitcoin, which would have to be hedged via the derivatives market. They publish the current positions of the large reportable traders based on positions held during the prior Tuesday.
This report is called CoT Report and is available every Friday afternoon. Of course, the report is three days behind, but as we know from the gold market, for example, it always is a very helpful study and delivers some insight.
This information is still relatively new to the unregulated crypto markets and should become very valuable in time. In the short term, however, only a very thin data series is available, so comparisons and classifications of the current positions have to be treated with caution. Expect a short squeeze rather soon than later! As of Tuesday, 13th March, their cumulated short position corresponded to A Bitcoin future contract represents five bitcoins, which leads to a cumulated short position of 12, bitcoins 4, shorts - 2, longs x 5.
Multiply that with current prices of 8, USD and you will know that the large speculators have been USD short in Bitcoin. This does not seem to be such a huge number, but considering that the existing liquidity on many exchanges does not provide a good order flow at levels above k USD, it is huge for the Bitcoin market in the short term. Therefore, the sharp and steep bounce that started last Sunday came as no surprise and should be treated as a short squeeze.
The new CoT Report this Friday afternoon will give us new insights as to which level the large speculators were forced to close their shorts. The expected but very fast bounce out of this zone made it back to 9, USD. But the failure already below the psychological resistance at 10k was too much for the bulls, and Bitcoin prices immediately turned back down.
In the following days, bulls lost even more confidence, and prices went into a free fall until the recent low at 7, USD. As the roller coaster show must continue, a massive bounce from extremely oversold levels started here, which took Bitcoin quickly back to 9, USD.
Some of the altcoins came back to life as well during this furious recovery. After the strong downtrend since early March, this was a healthy and necessary bounce for the whole crypto sector. Although the recent bounce short squeeze made it back to 9, USD, the daily close has been below the critical Remember, at 11, USD, this behavior has been a clear sign of weakness, and as of now, it seems to be the case again.
I doubt that Bitcoin will be able to break through the downtrend channel! Overall, I expect a confusing and irritating sideways movement over the next couple of weeks. There will be some good short-term opportunities in both directions, but I guess after these wild swings it's time to take a breather and calm down at least a little bit.
As well, volatility will have to shrink. As long as Bitcoin stays above 8, USD, bulls are in control for now. The next good buying zone for a multi-day swing trade seems to be around 7,, USD and, of course, around 6, USD. But until the summer, I continue to expect prices to correct down towards 4,, USD. Only if Bitcoin should move above 10, USD would the big picture improve quite significantly.
Conclusion As the recent crypto euphoria has obviously started to fade, it cannot be ruled out that Bitcoin and the crypto sector are already in a corrective winter cycle.
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How to use the indicator How to use the indicator The sentix Sentiment helps with short to medium-term timing of investment decisions on the 14 financial markets that are covered by sentix data. Especially in the case of extreme values signals arise, i. The sentix Sentiment then quotes above 0. For the individual markets, however, there are slight differences in the definition of the extreme ranges using absolute values see figures below.
In case of doubt, normalized values, so-called Z scores, can be used here. If the sentix Sentiment is located in extreme zones, it usually indicates that the market in question is overstretched in one direction. The received sentiment signal must therefore be interpreted in a contrary way. Examples are shown in the graphs below: The extremely bearish sentiment in German and European equities Figures 1 and 2 in mid is particularly impressive as it indicates the lowest mark of the indices at that time.
The extremely "bullish" sentiment on the oil market at the beginning of Fig. Sentiment divergences additionally provide important information. They mainly occur in rising markets, when the relatively volatile sentiment does not manage to surpass the last peak after a maximum in the sequel. A similar skepticism towards the future performance of an asset class could so far only be observed during the financial crisis: in mid for corporate bonds sentix Credit Sentiment and in and for initial public offerings sentix IPO Sentiment.
This negative attitude stands in stark contrast to the current media hype surrounding Bitcoins. As technical questions prevail and as the digital currency fluctuates strongly in price, Bitcoins do not yet fulfill all requirements for being treated as a full-fledged currency. That is exactly what is reflected in the current readings of sentix Bitcoins Sentiment. The future of the cryptocurrency thus remains open. Background: sentix Bitcoins Sentiment is surveyed on a monthly basis since December and part of the sentix Asset Class Sentiment survey which is regularly conducted around the second Friday of each month.
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