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In North America, the Hindu share of the population is expected to nearly double in the decades ahead, from 0. Beyond the Year This report describes how the global religious landscape would change if current demographic trends continue. With each passing year, however, there is a chance that unforeseen events — war, famine, disease, technological innovation, political upheaval, etc.

Owing to the difficulty of peering more than a few decades into the future, the projections stop at Readers may wonder, though, what would happen to the population trajectories highlighted in this report if they were projected into the second half of this century. And, if so, when? The answer depends on continuation of the trends described in Chapter 1. After that, the number of Muslims would exceed the number of Christians, but both religious groups would grow, roughly in tandem, as shown in the graph above.

Due to the heavy concentration of Christians and Muslims in this high-fertility region, both groups would increase as a percentage of the global population. It bears repeating, however, that many factors could alter these trajectories. Or if disaffiliation were to become common in countries with large Muslim populations — as it is now in some countries with large Christian populations — that trend could slow or reverse the increase in Muslim numbers.

Regional and Country-Level Projections In addition to making projections at the global level, this report projects religious change in countries and territories with at least , people as of , covering Population estimates for an additional 36 countries and territories are included in regional and global totals throughout the report.

Ongoing growth in both regions will fuel global increases in the Muslim population. One exception is Hindus, who are overwhelmingly concentrated in India, where the population is younger and fertility rates are higher than in China or Japan. As previously mentioned, Hindus are projected to roughly keep pace with global population growth.

Europe is the only region where the total population is projected to decline. While Christians will remain the largest religious group in Europe, they are projected to drop from three-quarters of the population to less than two-thirds. Over the same period, the number of Hindus in Europe is expected to roughly double, from a little under 1.

Buddhists appear headed for similarly rapid growth in Europe — a projected rise from 1. In the United States, for example, the share of the population that belongs to other religions is projected to more than double — albeit from a very small base — rising from 0. And by the middle of the 21st century, the United States is likely to have more Muslims 2.

But Nigeria also will continue to have a very large Christian population. Indeed, Nigeria is projected to have the third-largest Christian population in the world by , after the United States and Brazil. As of , the largest religious group in France, New Zealand and the Netherlands is expected to be the unaffiliated. About These Projections While many people have offered predictions about the future of religion, these are the first formal demographic projections using data on age, fertility, mortality, migration and religious switching for multiple religious groups around the world.

The projections cover eight major groups: Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jews, Muslims, adherents of folk religions, adherents of other religions and the unaffiliated see Appendix C: Defining the Religious Groups. Because censuses and surveys in many countries do not provide information on religious subgroups — such as Sunni and Shia Muslims or Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christians — the projections are for each religious group as a whole.

Data on subgroups of the unaffiliated are also unavailable in many countries. As a result, separate projections are not possible for atheists or agnostics. The projection model was developed in collaboration with researchers in the Age and Cohort Change Project at IIASA, who are world leaders in population projections methodology.

The model uses an advanced version of the cohort-component method typically employed by demographers to forecast population growth. It starts with a population of baseline age groups, or cohorts, divided by sex and religion. Each cohort is projected into the future by adding likely gains immigrants and people switching in and by subtracting likely losses deaths, emigrants and people switching out year by year.

For more details, see the Methodology. An initial set of projections for one religious group, Muslims, was published in , although it did not attempt to take religious switching into account. Some social theorists have suggested that as countries develop economically, more of their inhabitants will move away from religious affiliation. While that has been the general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe, it is not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.

Rather, the projections extend the recently observed patterns of religious switching in all countries for which sufficient data are available 70 countries in all. And the projections assume that people gradually are living longer in most countries.

These and other key input data and assumptions are explained in detail in Chapter 1 and the Methodology Appendix A. Since religious change has never previously been projected on this scale, some cautionary words are in order. Population projections are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and rising life expectancies in particular countries.

The projections are what will occur if the current data are accurate and current trends continue. But many events — scientific discoveries, armed conflicts, social movements, political upheavals, natural disasters and changing economic conditions, to name just a few — can shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways. That is why the projections are limited to a year time frame, and subsequent chapters of this report try to give a sense of how much difference it could make if key assumptions were different.

For more details on the possible impact of religious switching in China, see Chapter 1. Finally, readers should bear in mind that within every major religious group, there is a spectrum of belief and practice. The projections are based on the number of people who self-identify with each religious group, regardless of their level of observance. What it means to be Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Jewish or a member of any other faith may vary from person to person, country to country, and decade to decade.

Acknowledgements These population projections were produced by the Pew Research Center as part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, which analyzes religious change and its impact on societies around the world.

Conrad Hackett was the lead researcher and primary author of this report. Alan Cooperman served as lead editor. Anne Shi and Juan Carlos Esparza Ochoa made major contributions to data collection, storage and analysis. Bill Webster created the graphics and Stacy Rosenberg and Ben Wormald oversaw development of the interactive data presentations and the Global Religious Futures website. Marcin Stonawski wrote the cutting-edge software used for these projections and led the collection and analysis of European data.

The Indian number system uses units such as lakhs and crores and places commas at different intervals than the international system. Some examples of equivalents: International number system vs. For example, Hindus increased from million In millions In crore However, there is some evidence that Christians may be undercounted. Members of Scheduled Castes are eligible for government benefits, reportedly prompting some people in that category to identify as Hindu when completing official forms such as the census.

Historically, the caste someone was born into permanently determined their status in the social hierarchy, along with their available social circle and what careers they could pursue. Scheduled Tribes are Indigenous peoples. People belonging to OBCs inherited other social class identities that have been socially and educationally disadvantaged.

Under the constitution, Muslims and Christians are not eligible for most of the caste-based reservations available to Hindus and others. This issue is controversial. Proponents of changing the law to allow greater access to benefits point out that excluding these groups from programs intended to lift disadvantaged people out of poverty contributes to inequalities along religious lines, essentially preserving the caste system for some people.

However, on the Indian census, Christians are not able to identify as members of a Scheduled Caste, which may lead to an undercount of Christians in the census. In the same survey, smaller shares of Muslims identified as belonging to a Scheduled Caste or Tribe, but over half said they were members of OBCs. Since the s, Indian governments have worked with international agencies to promote a range of birth control methods, from contraceptives to forced sterilizations.

Today, some states and territories discourage large families with penalties, such as barring parents with more than two children from receiving social services or holding political office. Between and , the Muslim population expanded by But this gap has narrowed. From to , the difference in growth between Muslims In the most recent decade between censuses, Hindus added million

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